Saturday, September 5, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
volatile week ahead
The benchmark indices created history this week by hitting the upper limits for the first time ever.
So sharp were the gains that the Sensex soared over 2,100 points in a single trading session, not to mention the minuscule time it took for the spectacular gain.
All in all, it was a cheerful week for the bulls, while bears rushed to cover their shorts. We had mentioned in the analysis that appeared in the April 19 issue that 12,600 is the short-term target and, above it, the index may rally up to 14,800.
However, it was never assumed that this would happen in a week itself. The Sensex zoomed to a high of 14,930, and then fell back around 1,300 points to a low of 13,611, before ending with a gain of 14 per cent at 13,887.
This week, the index may face some resistance at around 14,400-14,800, while support on the downside would be around 13,300-13,000. The broader trend suggests that the bulls will continue to hold the upper hand as long as the index stays above 12,600. On the upside, the index, after some consolidation above 14,800, will target 16,400 in the next few months.
The Nifty moved in a range of 836 points. The index touched a high of 4,509 and finally settled with a solid gain of 15.4 per cent at 4,293 — up 567 points.
The Nifty is likely to consolidate in a higher trading band of 3,860-4,530. Above 4,530, the index will target the 5,000-mark. On the downside, a break of 3,860 could indicate further weakness up to 2,960 levels.
This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 4,550-4,750, while support on the downside will be around 3,920-3,720.
So sharp were the gains that the Sensex soared over 2,100 points in a single trading session, not to mention the minuscule time it took for the spectacular gain.
All in all, it was a cheerful week for the bulls, while bears rushed to cover their shorts. We had mentioned in the analysis that appeared in the April 19 issue that 12,600 is the short-term target and, above it, the index may rally up to 14,800.
However, it was never assumed that this would happen in a week itself. The Sensex zoomed to a high of 14,930, and then fell back around 1,300 points to a low of 13,611, before ending with a gain of 14 per cent at 13,887.
This week, the index may face some resistance at around 14,400-14,800, while support on the downside would be around 13,300-13,000. The broader trend suggests that the bulls will continue to hold the upper hand as long as the index stays above 12,600. On the upside, the index, after some consolidation above 14,800, will target 16,400 in the next few months.
The Nifty moved in a range of 836 points. The index touched a high of 4,509 and finally settled with a solid gain of 15.4 per cent at 4,293 — up 567 points.
The Nifty is likely to consolidate in a higher trading band of 3,860-4,530. Above 4,530, the index will target the 5,000-mark. On the downside, a break of 3,860 could indicate further weakness up to 2,960 levels.
This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 4,550-4,750, while support on the downside will be around 3,920-3,720.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Bulls to have upper hand above 12,100
This week, the index is likely to face resistance around last week’s high of 12,270, while support on the downside would be around 11,650-11,480. The markets will favour bulls only if the index manages to sustain above 12,100. On the downside, a break of 11,400, could see the index take a sharp dip towards 10,600.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 238 points, from a low of 3,479, the index surged to a high of 3,717, and finally settled with a gain of 4.2 per cent (147 points) at 3,621.
The index is likely to face considerable resistance around 3,710-3,770-3,815. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 3,530-3,475. The short-term (20-days) daily moving average is at 3,455, and the mid-term (50-days) daily moving average is at 3,070.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 238 points, from a low of 3,479, the index surged to a high of 3,717, and finally settled with a gain of 4.2 per cent (147 points) at 3,621.
The index is likely to face considerable resistance around 3,710-3,770-3,815. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 3,530-3,475. The short-term (20-days) daily moving average is at 3,455, and the mid-term (50-days) daily moving average is at 3,070.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
nifty resistance seen around 2825
The markets bounced back last week in tandem with other global markets, led by a strong rally in the US. The Sensex, which touched a low of 8,110, rallied sharply to a high of 8,793 – up 683 points – before settling with a gain of over 5 per cent (431 points) at 8,757.
Among the index stocks, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Sterlite and HDFC soared by 13-17 per cent each. Maruti, Reliance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindalco, Reliance Communications, Grasim, Infosys, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro and ACC rallied by 6-10 per cent. Bharti Airtel, however, plunged by over 7 per cent, and NTPC shed 4 per cent.
The index, after having seen a breakdown, has bounced back. Hence, the upmove looks susceptible and is likely to fizzle out sooner or later.
As per Fibonacci calculations, the Sensex has given a sell signal on both monthly and quarterly charts. The first signs of weakness from hereon should be the breaking of 8,435. On the upside, the Sensex is likely to face resistance at around 8,900-9,000 levels. In a very extreme scenario, this particular pullback may see the index move up to 9,580-9,650.
This week, the Sensex is likely to find support at around 8,495-8,415-8,335, while resistance on the upside could be at around 9,015-9,100-9,180.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 171 points. From a low of 2,556, the index rallied to a high of 2,726, finally ending with a gain of 99 points at 2,719. The index is likely to face some resistance at around 2,760, above which the index may move up to 2,825, which would be a crucial hurdle this week.
On the downside, the index is likely to find support at around 2,655 and, further deeper down at around 2,615-2,590.
Among the index stocks, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Sterlite and HDFC soared by 13-17 per cent each. Maruti, Reliance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindalco, Reliance Communications, Grasim, Infosys, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro and ACC rallied by 6-10 per cent. Bharti Airtel, however, plunged by over 7 per cent, and NTPC shed 4 per cent.
The index, after having seen a breakdown, has bounced back. Hence, the upmove looks susceptible and is likely to fizzle out sooner or later.
As per Fibonacci calculations, the Sensex has given a sell signal on both monthly and quarterly charts. The first signs of weakness from hereon should be the breaking of 8,435. On the upside, the Sensex is likely to face resistance at around 8,900-9,000 levels. In a very extreme scenario, this particular pullback may see the index move up to 9,580-9,650.
This week, the Sensex is likely to find support at around 8,495-8,415-8,335, while resistance on the upside could be at around 9,015-9,100-9,180.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 171 points. From a low of 2,556, the index rallied to a high of 2,726, finally ending with a gain of 99 points at 2,719. The index is likely to face some resistance at around 2,760, above which the index may move up to 2,825, which would be a crucial hurdle this week.
On the downside, the index is likely to find support at around 2,655 and, further deeper down at around 2,615-2,590.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Market may trade higher on Tuesday
On Tuesday, market would go upside as markets are highly oversold, where Reliance, SBI, ICICI Bank, Reliance Capital and more stocks will participate in expected up move, technical analyst, Vishwas Agarwal said while commenting on the market. Agarwal added that,``F&O expiry will also attract some short covering next 4 days with an opportunity to reap some profits for buyer.``He says that a range bound trading is possible due to absence of positive event.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Nifty to trade in the range of 2,600-2,800
The cautious approach by F&O traders ahead of the market holiday on Monday helped benchmark indices to close marginally above the crucial support levels. The Nifty closed at 2,736 from intra-day low of 2,709, while Nifty futures closed at 2,722 after declining below the 2,700 level.
The technical indicator shows a new bearish reversal pattern developing on the hourly chart with support around 2,750 on the Nifty futures. Once broken, the Nifty could correct 100-150 points in a matter of few days, says a technical analyst from JM Financials.
Technically, the markets remain in the oversold zone and hence the possibility of a pullback on account of shortcovering, is possible. This probably may happen after the expiry of February series.
However, the bulls can derive some comfort as we saw unusual volumes in the 2,700 and 2,750 call options. The 2,700 call options added 1.53 million shares in open interest at an average premium of Rs 55 a share while the 2,750 call added open interest of 421,150 shares at a premium of Rs 30 a share. This means the index has strong support in the trading range of 2,700- 2,755.
The F&O traders expects technical pullback in March series contracts as we saw long build-up in the 2,800 and 2,900 call options of March series. The long build-up in the 2,800 and 2,900 call options is probably to mitigate short build-up in the Nifty March futures.
The March futures, which continue to trade at a discount to February futures has added open interest of almost 10 million shares in the last three trading days, which indicates short build-up.
The activity in the Nifty futures indicates significant addition of short positions towards the weekend. The overall market cost-of-carry recovered towards the weekend on the back of some short covering in the last hour of Friday trading due to the extended weekend.
According Niitn Murarka, derivatives head of SMC Global, the current accumulation pattern indicates strong supports for Nifty is placed at the 2,700 levels. However, if index closes below 2,700 than we may see sharp sell off up to 2,400 level. The index is expected to hover between 2,600 and 2,800 levels in the coming week.
The technical indicator shows a new bearish reversal pattern developing on the hourly chart with support around 2,750 on the Nifty futures. Once broken, the Nifty could correct 100-150 points in a matter of few days, says a technical analyst from JM Financials.
Technically, the markets remain in the oversold zone and hence the possibility of a pullback on account of shortcovering, is possible. This probably may happen after the expiry of February series.
However, the bulls can derive some comfort as we saw unusual volumes in the 2,700 and 2,750 call options. The 2,700 call options added 1.53 million shares in open interest at an average premium of Rs 55 a share while the 2,750 call added open interest of 421,150 shares at a premium of Rs 30 a share. This means the index has strong support in the trading range of 2,700- 2,755.
The F&O traders expects technical pullback in March series contracts as we saw long build-up in the 2,800 and 2,900 call options of March series. The long build-up in the 2,800 and 2,900 call options is probably to mitigate short build-up in the Nifty March futures.
The March futures, which continue to trade at a discount to February futures has added open interest of almost 10 million shares in the last three trading days, which indicates short build-up.
The activity in the Nifty futures indicates significant addition of short positions towards the weekend. The overall market cost-of-carry recovered towards the weekend on the back of some short covering in the last hour of Friday trading due to the extended weekend.
According Niitn Murarka, derivatives head of SMC Global, the current accumulation pattern indicates strong supports for Nifty is placed at the 2,700 levels. However, if index closes below 2,700 than we may see sharp sell off up to 2,400 level. The index is expected to hover between 2,600 and 2,800 levels in the coming week.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Nifty may trade in range of 2,700-2,930 next week
The markets moved on expected lines last week with the Nifty exhibiting weakness below the 2,835-mark. The index hit a low of 2,702, and finally closed with a loss of 45 points at 2,828, despite a good quarterly performance by IT giant Infosys and decent gains recorded by blue-chip Reliance.
The bollinger bands have now expanded to a broader range of 2,700-3,175. Although, the markets may move up early next week, but chances of a continued uptrend remain bleak. For any sustainable rally, the index needs to comprehensively break above the 3,150-mark. The 2,700-level will act as an immediate support level for the index.
This week, the index may see rangebound trading with support around 2,725, and resistance around 2,930-2,960. In case, the index sustains itself above 2,960, then it may re-test the 3,150-mark.
The Sensex moved in a range of 466 points, from a high of 9,341 to a low of 8,947, before settling with a loss of 83 points.
Among the index stocks — Infosys, Reliance, Reliance Infrastructure, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Power gained 3-6 per cent each. On the other hand, Tata Power declined by 10 per cent to Rs 218. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, TCS, Tata Motors, Grasim, Wipro, HDFC, Hindalco, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Sterlite shed 5-8 per cent each.
The Sensex has given a sell signal on the monthly charts and, hence, is likely to face stiff resistance on the upside. Key resistance for the index would be around 9,600-9,650, above which the index may spurt to 10,025. On the downside, the index is likely to test 8,600 in the coming days.
The bollinger bands have now expanded to a broader range of 2,700-3,175. Although, the markets may move up early next week, but chances of a continued uptrend remain bleak. For any sustainable rally, the index needs to comprehensively break above the 3,150-mark. The 2,700-level will act as an immediate support level for the index.
This week, the index may see rangebound trading with support around 2,725, and resistance around 2,930-2,960. In case, the index sustains itself above 2,960, then it may re-test the 3,150-mark.
The Sensex moved in a range of 466 points, from a high of 9,341 to a low of 8,947, before settling with a loss of 83 points.
Among the index stocks — Infosys, Reliance, Reliance Infrastructure, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Power gained 3-6 per cent each. On the other hand, Tata Power declined by 10 per cent to Rs 218. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, TCS, Tata Motors, Grasim, Wipro, HDFC, Hindalco, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Sterlite shed 5-8 per cent each.
The Sensex has given a sell signal on the monthly charts and, hence, is likely to face stiff resistance on the upside. Key resistance for the index would be around 9,600-9,650, above which the index may spurt to 10,025. On the downside, the index is likely to test 8,600 in the coming days.
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