volatile week ahead

The benchmark indices created history this week by hitting the upper limits for the first time ever.
So sharp were the gains that the Sensex soared over 2,100 points in a single trading session, not to mention the minuscule time it took for the spectacular gain.
All in all, it was a cheerful week for the bulls, while bears rushed to cover their shorts. We had mentioned in the analysis that appeared in the April 19 issue that 12,600 is the short-term target and, above it, the index may rally up to 14,800.
However, it was never assumed that this would happen in a week itself. The Sensex zoomed to a high of 14,930, and then fell back around 1,300 points to a low of 13,611, before ending with a gain of 14 per cent at 13,887.
This week, the index may face some resistance at around 14,400-14,800, while support on the downside would be around 13,300-13,000. The broader trend suggests that the bulls will continue to hold the upper hand as long as the index stays above 12,600. On the upside, the index, after some consolidation above 14,800, will target 16,400 in the next few months.
The Nifty moved in a range of 836 points. The index touched a high of 4,509 and finally settled with a solid gain of 15.4 per cent at 4,293 — up 567 points.
The Nifty is likely to consolidate in a higher trading band of 3,860-4,530. Above 4,530, the index will target the 5,000-mark. On the downside, a break of 3,860 could indicate further weakness up to 2,960 levels.
This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 4,550-4,750, while support on the downside will be around 3,920-3,720.

Bulls to have upper hand above 12,100

This week, the index is likely to face resistance around last week’s high of 12,270, while support on the downside would be around 11,650-11,480. The markets will favour bulls only if the index manages to sustain above 12,100. On the downside, a break of 11,400, could see the index take a sharp dip towards 10,600.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 238 points, from a low of 3,479, the index surged to a high of 3,717, and finally settled with a gain of 4.2 per cent (147 points) at 3,621.
The index is likely to face considerable resistance around 3,710-3,770-3,815. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 3,530-3,475. The short-term (20-days) daily moving average is at 3,455, and the mid-term (50-days) daily moving average is at 3,070.