Nifty declined below the 3800 level on Monday and recorded a trough at 3198.9 on Friday, way below our outermost medium-term target. Though we were anticipating a decline, the swiftness definitely took us by surprise. The supports on the long-term charts for the Nifty are now at 2940 (61.8 per cent retracement of the up-move from 2001) and then at 2595 (June 2006 trough). The medium term outlook will turn positive only on a weekly close above 3800.
Near term resistances would be at 3530 and 3610. Reversal below these levels will indicate further weakness. Subsequent resistance is at 3879.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Sunday, October 5, 2008
nifty weekly outlook
Nifty recorded an intra-week low at 3715 on Tuesday. But there was a sharp rebound from here and the index closed the week within our medium-term range between 3800 and 4500.
Technical indicators, however, signal that this support could be breached in the short-term and the index could decline to 3715 or 3636 in the week ahead. Failure to move above 4070 in the early part of the week will fortify this assumption.
The medium-term view too is currently negative and the target of the move from 4649 gives us the downward targets at 3778 and then 3454. If the down move continues next week, the second target would be in reckoning.
Technical indicators, however, signal that this support could be breached in the short-term and the index could decline to 3715 or 3636 in the week ahead. Failure to move above 4070 in the early part of the week will fortify this assumption.
The medium-term view too is currently negative and the target of the move from 4649 gives us the downward targets at 3778 and then 3454. If the down move continues next week, the second target would be in reckoning.
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